Insights & Analysis

Published thinking. Public conviction.

A selection of our independent research on the coffee complex. The full briefing library is reserved for clients — this is where we make our thinking public.

Featured · Market Structure

The Arabica–Robusta Spread Is Telling a New Story

A structural narrowing in the differential is reshaping blend economics. We examine what it means for procurement desks over the coming cycle.

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E. Marchetti

Jul 2026 · 8 min

FundamentalsJun 2026

Pricing Weather Risk Ahead of the Brazilian Winter

Frost premiums are not linear. A framework for translating meteorological probability into defensible position sizing.

R. Oduya6 min
LogisticsJun 2026

Freight and the Forgotten Basis

Container economics quietly move the delivered cost curve. Why the physical basis deserves a seat at the strategy table.

S. Whitfield7 min
PositioningMay 2026

Reading Speculative Positioning as a Signal, Not a Verdict

Managed money is informative but frequently misread. A disciplined approach to positioning data in the coffee complex.

E. Marchetti9 min
MacroMay 2026

Currency Pass-Through at Origin

How BRL and COP moves transmit — and fail to transmit — into farmgate behavior and export flow.

R. Oduya5 min
DemandApr 2026

Certification, Premiumization and the New Demand Tiers

Consumer demand is fragmenting into distinct tiers. What that means for differentiated origin strategy.

S. Whitfield7 min

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